Potential outcomes for the Raiders stadium vote

On Monday, the NFL is scheduled to vote on the relocation request of the Oakland Raiders. After years of dangling in purgatory, things are finally starting to come to a head. At least we hope. With all signs pointing towards the vote actually going down and not being delayed, let’s take a look at the potential outcomes for the vote.

Postponement

I know, I literally just said the signs are pointing towards the vote happening and not being postponed but we should really cover all of the bases. The NFL owners are as sick of the stadium issue as Raiders fans are and really want to start moving forward. For a long time, it was theorized that the vote would take place at the owners meeting on March 27 but it was only a few days ago that it was confirmed the vote would in fact be happening. Confirmation this close seems to point to the fact that it will in fact go down.

This is the least likely outcome for Monday’s meetings.

Move is Voted Down

If, for some reason, the owners are unhappy with the idea of moving to Vegas, they will vote to deny the application by the Raiders. But it can’t just be that they don’t know the details of the lease or the location where the stadium would be built. Those are important but the owners won’t flat out reject the move because they don’t have all of the info. $750 million in public money is not easy to walk away from. The only reason it gets rejected is if the owners think Vegas is a bad idea. Whether it’s because they don’t like the deal with Bank of America or think the market is too small, there would have to be a thought that the move would result in disaster not benefit for the league.

This option is very unlikely to happen.

Move is Approved

With the financing in place and no other viable option, the move to Vegas is likely very appealing to many owners. It would finally put an end to a years long fiasco. Vegas has the money and government officials who are more than happy to kowtow to the NFL. Issues about gambling seem to be a thing of the past and if reports on the viability of the market were bad, you would have to imagine we would have heard about it. Instead, all momentum is heading towards the move being approved. The problem is, the details aren’t finished and it just seems rather unlikely the owners will vote to approve a lease they’ve never seen and a location for the stadium that hasn’t yet been chosen.

This option is more likely to happen, but still doesn’t seem super likely.

Conditional Approval Pending Details

And finally we get to what I believe is the likely outcome. The NFL votes to approve the deal pending approval of other details like the lease and the stadium location. Why do this rather than just postponing the vote? A few reasons. First, to send a message to the Raiders and Vegas that yes, this thing is about to happen so don’t screw it up now by passing at the one yardline instead of handing the ball to Marshawn Lynch (like how I worked him into a stadium piece?). The other thing it does is give the NFL owners leverage. If there is something they want included in the lease or loan agreement, the various parties are not likely to balk at the NFL when they are so very close to getting approved. This way, the NFL doesn’t risk approving the unknown, they gain leverage and they apply pressure all while reserving their right to reject the move if they see something they don’t like.

This option is easily the most likely to happen.